CBRE: GGR forecast to exceed estimates on strong demand

Driven by resilient consumer demand and tourism investments, CBRE analysts say that Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) is poised to exceed 2026 forecasts. The analysts predict an 8.3% year-over-year growth, surpassing current consensus estimates.

The prediction builds on Macau’s strong start to the year, where first-quarter GGR rose 14.2% year-over-year. As CBRE Capital Advisors’ John DeCree and Max Marsh explain, this pace makes the broader 6% full-year consensus appear too conservative.

To hit that target, growth would need to slow sharply to just 3.5% over the remaining three quarters – an outcome they deem unlikely amid China’s improving economic conditions and a rebound in mass-market visitors.

“Macau GGR should top FY26 consensus,” the analysts wrote, pointing to China’s 4.5%-5% GDP growth target and related stimulus measures, which are expected to further boost tourism.

Investor skepticism weighs on stocks

Yet despite this operational momentum, investor confidence remains subdued, CBRE notes.

Research conducted by CBRE Equity Research indicates U.S.-listed Macau gaming stocks have dropped 14% year-to-date, while Hong Kong-listed peers are down 10%. CBRE attributes the disconnect to worries about growth sustainability and margin pressures from higher operating costs and fiercer competition.

Consequently, valuations sit below historical averages, even as Macau’s fundamentals strengthen.

Meanwhile, on the expense front, CBRE notes that recent increases stem from select operators ramping up promotions to grab market share, as well as concession-related investments.

However, the analysts add, these pressures should ease this year, as the costs become integrated into operators’ structures. “Promotional activity should remain elevated but stabilize,” CBRE analysts said.

“We believe the magnitude of topline growth in first quarter 2026 was enough to support continued EBITDA growth for most operators, even those that might have sacrificed some GGR share in exchange for profitability.”